It finally happened to us.

 Here are the September statistics for the Oklahoma City Metropolitan Association of Realtors.

Based on information provided to and compiled by MLSGateway.com, Inc. covering a period 2007 through 2008MLSGateway.com, Inc. does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy

The thing that is striking is that this is I believe the first time that we have seen prices drop in year over year comparisons of the same month.   September 2008 saw the average price fall to $149,688 from the one year ago price of $151,801.  This is a 1.4% decrease in prices.  The Median price which is probably a better statistic to use since it is less susceptible to being skewed by extreme outliers also showed a decrease to $126,500 from $130,000 one year ago(a 2.7% decrease).

I have felt for some time that we were seeing a weakening of a market.  However, it was not detectable because the really great homes were still selling at a premium price.  But those mediocre homes that used to sell were now either not selling or having to take serious price reductions.  Now it seems to have affected even the really great homes as well.

Is this a scary situation.  Not really.  If you are currently selling it just means that you may not realize as much profit as the greed monster in all of us wants.  If you are buying is a great opportunity.  If you are buying and selling then it depends on whether you are moving up down or laterally.  Up the curent environment is advantageous.  Down disadvantageous.  Laterally it is neutral.

 So what does the future look like.  We will probably see about a 10 percent decrease in home prices moving forward.  The underlying economy in Oklahoma City is still strong but not immune to the woes of are nation.  I am often worried when I hear people use superlatives like the Federal Reserve is infinite or Oklahoma City is recession proof.  It is true that real estate is local but it is also true that we live in a global economy in which every part affects every other part.  Are homes in Oklahoma City overinflated?  Is our economy poor?  No but at the end of the day the people lending money for the homes here are the same people that are getting killed with defaults in Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada.  So even though we are still strong our market will be influenced by the tightening of the lenders that are being guided by the losses in other places. 

The buying pool has been shrunk by forces outside of Oklahoma because of issues unrelated to Oklahoma but they are none the less a reality of our current market.  Is this a bad thing.  Probably not.  It is a slight chilling effect that will ensure that we don’t become the overheated markets of the West Coast.

So back to what does the future look like.  Things will be a little less heated for a year or so but after that we will return to the strong consistent growth we have had here in the past.  Our economy is strong, our city is going through a renaissance of progress and the people here are the best found in the world.  So in short it is great to be in Oklahoma City.  There is no better place to be or no other place with a more prosperous future.